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The Bertrand paradox is a problem within the classical interpretation of probability theory. Joseph Bertrand introduced it in his work ''Calcul des probabilités'' (1889)〔Bertrand, Joseph (1889), "(Calcul des probabilités )", ''Gauthier-Villars'', p. 5-6〕 as an example to show that probabilities may not be well defined if the ''mechanism'' or ''method'' that produces the random variable is not clearly defined. ==Bertrand's formulation of the problem== The Bertrand paradox goes as follows: Consider an equilateral triangle inscribed in a circle. Suppose a chord of the circle is chosen at random. What is the probability that the chord is longer than a side of the triangle? Bertrand gave three arguments, all apparently valid, yet yielding different results. # The "random endpoints" method: Choose two random points on the circumference of the circle and draw the chord joining them. To calculate the probability in question imagine the triangle rotated so its vertex coincides with one of the chord endpoints. Observe that if the other chord endpoint lies on the arc between the endpoints of the triangle side opposite the first point, the chord is longer than a side of the triangle. The length of the arc is one third of the circumference of the circle, therefore the probability that a random chord is longer than a side of the inscribed triangle is 1/3. # The "random radius" method: Choose a radius of the circle, choose a point on the radius and construct the chord through this point and perpendicular to the radius. To calculate the probability in question imagine the triangle rotated so a side is perpendicular to the radius. The chord is longer than a side of the triangle if the chosen point is nearer the center of the circle than the point where the side of the triangle intersects the radius. The side of the triangle bisects the radius, therefore the probability a random chord is longer than a side of the inscribed triangle is 1/2. # The "random midpoint" method: Choose a point anywhere within the circle and construct a chord with the chosen point as its midpoint. The chord is longer than a side of the inscribed triangle if the chosen point falls within a concentric circle of radius 1/2 the radius of the larger circle. The area of the smaller circle is one fourth the area of the larger circle, therefore the probability a random chord is longer than a side of the inscribed triangle is 1/4. The selection methods can also be visualized as follows. A chord is uniquely identified by its midpoint. Each of the three selection methods presented above yields a different distribution of midpoints. Methods 1 and 2 yield two different nonuniform distributions, while method 3 yields a uniform distribution. On the other hand, if one looks at the images of the chords below, the chords of method 2 give the circle a homogeneously shaded look, while method 1 and 3 do not. Other distributions can easily be imagined, many of which will yield a different proportion of chords which are longer than a side of the inscribed triangle. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Bertrand paradox (probability)」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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